Opinion piece

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European leaders were confronted with a vulnerability they had long preferred to overlook. Before the war, around 45 per cent of the natural gas consumed in the EU came from Russia.

Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and oil proved to be a structural weakness at the heart of the continent’s prosperity. When Russia weaponised energy exports, the illusion of stability collapsed. Energy security became inseparable from geopolitics.

Europe’s response has been rapid. Through the REPowerEU Plan, the EU moved to diversify energy supplies, expand liquefied natural gas imports and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy. Russian pipeline gas imports fell sharply between 2021 and 2025, replaced in part by increased supplies from partners such as the United States and Norway. At the same time, Europe accelerated investment in solar and wind power while expanding plans for green hydrogen and electrification.

Yet, replacing one external supplier with another leaves the continent exposed to volatile markets and geopolitical disruption. The deeper strategic solution lies in transforming the structure of Europe’s energy system itself.

This is where the European Green Deal becomes crucial. Often framed primarily as an environmental initiative, the Green Deal increasingly represents a broader strategy for economic resilience and strategic autonomy. Renewable energy fundamentally alters the geopolitics of power generation: wind, solar and other clean sources cannot be weaponised through supply routes or controlled by a small group of exporting states. Already, renewable energy accounted for nearly half of the EU’s electricity mix in 2024, and wind and solar alone generated roughly 30 per cent of electricity in 2025.

Transition comes with the crux of balancing already established fossil fuel industries and business interests with that of the 2050 end goal of the Green Deal, and how to enforce countries that lag in implementing transitory policies. Countries like Italy and Poland, among the worst in the bloc in terms of air quality, are examples of how leniency now could cause geopolitical cracks later down the road – a matter of security.

Strengthening Europe therefore requires turning the energy transition into a strategic project. Policymakers must accelerate renewable deployment, invest in electrification and secure critical supply chains, while businesses and innovators drive the development of new technologies. Energy independence is no longer only an environmental ambition. It is becoming a cornerstone of Europe’s security, competitiveness and long-term prosperity.

‍